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Pilica Białobrzegi vs Concordia Elbląg — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Pilica Białobrzegi
Pilica Białobrzegi
FT
0 – 1
Concordia Elbląg
Concordia Elbląg
5/3/2024III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 28Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Pilica Białobrzegi53%
×Draw21%
Concordia Elbląg26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pilica Białobrzegi
2.05
Concordia Elbląg
1.38

Pilica Białobrzegi creates 49% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 51 away

creates per match

Pilica Białobrzegi
1.54
Concordia Elbląg
1.04

allows per match

Pilica Białobrzegi
1.71
Concordia Elbląg
2.57

finishing

Pilica Białobrzegi+0.00on par
Concordia Elbląg+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pilica Białobrzegi ↓

Concordia Elbląg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Pilica Białobrzegi or draw
74%
Pilica Białobrzegi or Concordia Elbląg
79%
Draw or Concordia Elbląg
47%

Winning margin

Pilica Białobrzegi wins by 2+
31%
Concordia Elbląg wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Pilica Białobrzegi 1+ goals
87%
Pilica Białobrzegi 2+ goals
61%
Pilica Białobrzegi 3+ goals
33%
Concordia Elbląg 1+ goals
75%
Concordia Elbląg 2+ goals
40%
Concordia Elbląg 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Pilica Białobrzegi (draw refunded)
67%
Concordia Elbląg (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pilica Białobrzegi at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.71 · 52 matches

Concordia Elbląg away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.57 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pilica Białobrzegi attack 1.54 + Concordia Elbląg defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.05

Concordia Elbląg attack 1.04 + Pilica Białobrzegi defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Pilica Białobrzegi scores more
53%
level
21%
Concordia Elbląg scores more
26%

Pilica Białobrzegi at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Pilica Białobrzegi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Pilica Białobrzegi 0–1 Concordia Elbląg

Concordia Elbląg beat Pilica Białobrzegi 1-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on May 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Białobrzegi.