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Concordia Elbląg vs Pilica Białobrzegi — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Concordia Elbląg
Concordia Elbląg
FT
2 – 0
Pilica Białobrzegi
Pilica Białobrzegi
10/7/2023III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 11Stadion MOSiR ul. Krakusa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Concordia Elbląg51%
×Draw23%
Pilica Białobrzegi27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Concordia Elbląg
1.86
Pilica Białobrzegi
1.29

Concordia Elbląg creates 44% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 52 away

creates per match

Concordia Elbląg
1.29
Pilica Białobrzegi
1.13

allows per match

Concordia Elbląg
1.45
Pilica Białobrzegi
2.44

finishing

Concordia Elbląg+0.00on par
Pilica Białobrzegi+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Concordia Elbląg ↓

Pilica Białobrzegi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Concordia Elbląg or draw
73%
Concordia Elbląg or Pilica Białobrzegi
77%
Draw or Pilica Białobrzegi
49%

Winning margin

Concordia Elbląg wins by 2+
28%
Pilica Białobrzegi wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Concordia Elbląg 1+ goals
84%
Concordia Elbląg 2+ goals
55%
Concordia Elbląg 3+ goals
28%
Pilica Białobrzegi 1+ goals
72%
Pilica Białobrzegi 2+ goals
37%
Pilica Białobrzegi 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Concordia Elbląg (draw refunded)
66%
Pilica Białobrzegi (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Concordia Elbląg at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.45 · 51 matches

Pilica Białobrzegi away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.44 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Concordia Elbląg attack 1.29 + Pilica Białobrzegi defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.86

Pilica Białobrzegi attack 1.13 + Concordia Elbląg defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Concordia Elbląg scores more
51%
level
23%
Pilica Białobrzegi scores more
27%

Concordia Elbląg at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Concordia Elbląg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Concordia Elbląg 2–0 Pilica Białobrzegi

Concordia Elbląg beat Pilica Białobrzegi 2-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on October 7, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR ul. Krakusa in Elbląg.