Pilica Białobrzegi 1–4 Broń Radom: Result & Stats

Pilica Białobrzegi

FT

1 – 4

Broń Radom

9/30/2023

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 10Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Pilica Białobrzegi44%

×Draw23%

Broń Radom33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pilica BiałobrzegiExpected goals in this matchBroń Radom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.44

Pilica Białobrzegi

1.71

Broń Radom

1.44

Pilica Białobrzegi creates 19% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 103 away

1.54

creates per match

1.17

1.71

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Pilica Białobrzegi

1.54

Broń Radom

1.17

allows per match

Pilica Białobrzegi

1.71

Broń Radom

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pilica Białobrzegi+0.00on par

Broń Radom+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pilica Białobrzegi ↓

Broń Radom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Pilica Białobrzegi or draw

67%

Pilica Białobrzegi or Broń Radom

77%

Draw or Broń Radom

56%

Winning margin

Pilica Białobrzegi wins by 2+

23%

Broń Radom wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Pilica Białobrzegi 1+ goals

82%

Pilica Białobrzegi 2+ goals

51%

Pilica Białobrzegi 3+ goals

24%

Broń Radom 1+ goals

76%

Broń Radom 2+ goals

42%

Broń Radom 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Pilica Białobrzegi (draw refunded)

58%

Broń Radom (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pilica Białobrzegi at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.71 · 52 matches

Broń Radom away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.87 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pilica Białobrzegi attack 1.54 + Broń Radom defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.71

Broń Radom attack 1.17 + Pilica Białobrzegi defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Pilica Białobrzegi scores more

44%

level

23%

Broń Radom scores more

33%

Pilica Białobrzegi at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Pilica Białobrzegi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff