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Broń Radom vs Pilica Białobrzegi — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Broń Radom
Broń Radom
FT
1 – 1
Pilica Białobrzegi
Pilica Białobrzegi
9/16/2022III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 8Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Broń Radom55%
×Draw22%
Pilica Białobrzegi23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Broń Radom
1.96
Pilica Białobrzegi
1.19

Broń Radom creates 65% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 52 away

creates per match

Broń Radom
1.48
Pilica Białobrzegi
1.13

allows per match

Broń Radom
1.25
Pilica Białobrzegi
2.44

finishing

Broń Radom+0.00on par
Pilica Białobrzegi+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Broń Radom ↓

Pilica Białobrzegi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Broń Radom or draw
77%
Broń Radom or Pilica Białobrzegi
78%
Draw or Pilica Białobrzegi
45%

Winning margin

Broń Radom wins by 2+
32%
Pilica Białobrzegi wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Broń Radom 1+ goals
86%
Broń Radom 2+ goals
58%
Broń Radom 3+ goals
31%
Pilica Białobrzegi 1+ goals
70%
Pilica Białobrzegi 2+ goals
33%
Pilica Białobrzegi 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Broń Radom (draw refunded)
71%
Pilica Białobrzegi (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Broń Radom at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.25 · 103 matches

Pilica Białobrzegi away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.44 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Broń Radom attack 1.48 + Pilica Białobrzegi defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.96

Pilica Białobrzegi attack 1.13 + Broń Radom defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Broń Radom scores more
55%
level
22%
Pilica Białobrzegi scores more
23%

Broń Radom at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Broń Radom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Broń Radom 1–1 Pilica Białobrzegi

Broń Radom and Pilica Białobrzegi drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on September 16, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego in Radom.