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Pikine vs Mbour Petite Côte — Ligue 1 2019

Pikine
Pikine
FT
2 – 1
Mbour Petite Côte
Mbour Petite Côte
2/27/2021Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 9Stade Alassane Djigo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Pikine49%
×Draw33%
Mbour Petite Côte18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pikine
1.09
Mbour Petite Côte
0.55

Pikine creates 98% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 33 away

creates per match

Pikine
0.89
Mbour Petite Côte
0.48

allows per match

Pikine
0.63
Mbour Petite Côte
1.30

finishing

Pikine+0.00on par
Mbour Petite Côte+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

72%No
  • No72
  • Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pikine ↓

Mbour Petite Côte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–111%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
49%51%2.5
23%77%3.5
8%92%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Pikine or draw
82%
Pikine or Mbour Petite Côte
67%
Draw or Mbour Petite Côte
51%

Winning margin

Pikine wins by 2+
20%
Mbour Petite Côte wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Pikine 1+ goals
66%
Pikine 2+ goals
30%
Pikine 3+ goals
10%
Mbour Petite Côte 1+ goals
42%
Mbour Petite Côte 2+ goals
11%
Mbour Petite Côte 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Pikine (draw refunded)
72%
Mbour Petite Côte (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pikine at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.63 · 89 matches

Mbour Petite Côte away — creates 0.48, concedes 1.30 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pikine attack 0.89 + Mbour Petite Côte defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.09

Mbour Petite Côte attack 0.48 + Pikine defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Pikine scores more
49%
level
33%
Mbour Petite Côte scores more
18%

Pikine at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Pikine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Pikine 2–1 Mbour Petite Côte

Pikine beat Mbour Petite Côte 2-1 in Ligue 1 on February 27, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Alassane Djigo in Pikine.