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Mbour Petite Côte vs Pikine — Ligue 1 2019

Mbour Petite Côte
Mbour Petite Côte
FT
2 – 2
Pikine
Pikine
4/2/2022Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 16Stade Caroline Faye

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Mbour Petite Côte33%
×Draw32%
Pikine35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mbour Petite Côte
0.92
Pikine
0.97

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 88 away

creates per match

Mbour Petite Côte
0.94
Pikine
0.75

allows per match

Mbour Petite Côte
1.19
Pikine
0.89

finishing

Mbour Petite Côte+0.00on par
Pikine+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mbour Petite Côte ↓

Pikine →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–115%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Mbour Petite Côte or draw
65%
Mbour Petite Côte or Pikine
68%
Draw or Pikine
67%

Winning margin

Mbour Petite Côte wins by 2+
12%
Pikine wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Mbour Petite Côte 1+ goals
60%
Mbour Petite Côte 2+ goals
23%
Mbour Petite Côte 3+ goals
7%
Pikine 1+ goals
62%
Pikine 2+ goals
25%
Pikine 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Mbour Petite Côte (draw refunded)
48%
Pikine (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mbour Petite Côte at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.19 · 32 matches

Pikine away — creates 0.75, concedes 0.89 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mbour Petite Côte attack 0.94 + Pikine defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.92

Pikine attack 0.75 + Mbour Petite Côte defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Mbour Petite Côte scores more
33%
level
32%
Pikine scores more
35%

Pikine at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Pikine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mbour Petite Côte vs Pikine

Mbour Petite Côte and Pikine drew 2-2 in Ligue 1 on April 2, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Caroline Faye in Mbour.