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PIF vs PEPO — Ykkönen 2018

PIF
PIF
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
PEPO
PEPO
8/27/2022YkkönenYkkönen · Round 14Pajbackan kenttä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

PIF39%
×Draw23%
PEPO38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PIF
1.65
PEPO
1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

creates per match

PIF
1.08
PEPO
1.00

allows per match

PIF
2.23
PEPO
2.21

finishing

PIF+0.00on par
PEPO+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PIF ↓

PEPO →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

PIF or draw
62%
PIF or PEPO
77%
Draw or PEPO
61%

Winning margin

PIF wins by 2+
20%
PEPO wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

PIF 1+ goals
81%
PIF 2+ goals
49%
PIF 3+ goals
23%
PEPO 1+ goals
80%
PEPO 2+ goals
48%
PEPO 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

PIF (draw refunded)
51%
PEPO (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PIF at home — creates 1.08, concedes 2.23 · 13 matches

PEPO away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.21 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PIF attack 1.08 + PEPO defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.65

PEPO attack 1.00 + PIF defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

PIF scores more
39%
level
23%
PEPO scores more
38%

PIF at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "PIF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

PIF 0 – 2 PEPO

PEPO beat PIF 2-0 in Ykkönen on August 27, 2022.

The match was played at Pajbackan kenttä in Parainen.