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PEPO vs PIF — Ykkönen 2018

PEPO
PEPO
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
PIF
PIF
6/18/2022YkkönenYkkönen · Round 7Kimpisen Urheilupuisto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

PEPO47%
×Draw22%
PIF30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PEPO
1.92
PIF
1.50

PEPO creates 28% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

creates per match

PEPO
1.54
PIF
1.07

allows per match

PEPO
1.92
PIF
2.29

finishing

PEPO+0.00on par
PIF+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PEPO ↓

PIF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

PEPO or draw
70%
PEPO or PIF
78%
Draw or PIF
53%

Winning margin

PEPO wins by 2+
26%
PIF wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

PEPO 1+ goals
85%
PEPO 2+ goals
57%
PEPO 3+ goals
30%
PIF 1+ goals
78%
PIF 2+ goals
44%
PIF 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

PEPO (draw refunded)
61%
PIF (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PEPO at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

PIF away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PEPO attack 1.54 + PIF defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.92

PIF attack 1.07 + PEPO defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

PEPO scores more
47%
level
22%
PIF scores more
30%

PEPO at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "PEPO will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

PEPO 2 – 1 PIF

PEPO beat PIF 2-1 in Ykkönen on June 18, 2022.

The match was played at Kimpisen Urheilupuisto in Lappeenranta.