PIF 2–2 HJS Akatemia: Result & Stats

PIF

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

HJS Akatemia

7/4/2021

Kakkonen - Lohko B · Group B - 4Pajbackan kenttä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

PIF46%

×Draw22%

HJS Akatemia31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PIFExpected goals in this matchHJS Akatemia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.52

PIF

1.88

HJS Akatemia

1.52

PIF creates 24% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 80 away

2.00

creates per match

1.45

1.60

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

PIF

2.00

HJS Akatemia

1.45

allows per match

PIF

1.60

HJS Akatemia

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

PIF+0.00on par

HJS Akatemia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PIF ↓

HJS Akatemia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

PIF or draw

69%

PIF or HJS Akatemia

78%

Draw or HJS Akatemia

54%

Winning margin

PIF wins by 2+

25%

HJS Akatemia wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

PIF 1+ goals

85%

PIF 2+ goals

56%

PIF 3+ goals

29%

HJS Akatemia 1+ goals

78%

HJS Akatemia 2+ goals

45%

HJS Akatemia 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

PIF (draw refunded)

59%

HJS Akatemia (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PIF at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.60 · 30 matches

HJS Akatemia away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.75 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PIF attack 2.00 + HJS Akatemia defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.88

HJS Akatemia attack 1.45 + PIF defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

PIF scores more

46%

level

22%

HJS Akatemia scores more

31%

PIF at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "PIF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff