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HJS Akatemia vs PIF — Kakkonen - Lohko B 2018

HJS Akatemia
HJS Akatemia
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
PIF
PIF
4/22/2023Kakkonen - Lohko BKakkonen - Lohko B · Group B - 1Pulleri tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

HJS Akatemia50%
×Draw22%
PIF28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HJS Akatemia
1.97
PIF
1.42

HJS Akatemia creates 39% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 31 away

creates per match

HJS Akatemia
2.04
PIF
1.29

allows per match

HJS Akatemia
1.55
PIF
1.90

finishing

HJS Akatemia+0.00on par
PIF+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HJS Akatemia ↓

PIF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

HJS Akatemia or draw
72%
HJS Akatemia or PIF
78%
Draw or PIF
50%

Winning margin

HJS Akatemia wins by 2+
29%
PIF wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

HJS Akatemia 1+ goals
86%
HJS Akatemia 2+ goals
58%
HJS Akatemia 3+ goals
31%
PIF 1+ goals
76%
PIF 2+ goals
41%
PIF 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

HJS Akatemia (draw refunded)
64%
PIF (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HJS Akatemia at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.55 · 77 matches

PIF away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.90 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HJS Akatemia attack 2.04 + PIF defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.97

PIF attack 1.29 + HJS Akatemia defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

HJS Akatemia scores more
50%
level
22%
PIF scores more
28%

HJS Akatemia at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "HJS Akatemia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kakkonen - Lohko B: HJS Akatemia 1–2 PIF

PIF beat HJS Akatemia 2-1 in Kakkonen - Lohko B on April 22, 2023.

The match was played at Pulleri tekonurmi in Hämeenlinna.