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Piast Żmigród vs Odra Wodzislaw — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Piast Żmigród
Piast Żmigród
FT
2 – 0
Odra Wodzislaw
Odra Wodzislaw
11/20/2021III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 18Stadion OSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Piast Żmigród45%
×Draw23%
Odra Wodzislaw32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Piast Żmigród
1.81
Odra Wodzislaw
1.50

Piast Żmigród creates 21% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 34 away

creates per match

Piast Żmigród
1.34
Odra Wodzislaw
1.35

allows per match

Piast Żmigród
1.66
Odra Wodzislaw
2.29

finishing

Piast Żmigród+0.00on par
Odra Wodzislaw+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Piast Żmigród ↓

Odra Wodzislaw →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Piast Żmigród or draw
68%
Piast Żmigród or Odra Wodzislaw
77%
Draw or Odra Wodzislaw
55%

Winning margin

Piast Żmigród wins by 2+
24%
Odra Wodzislaw wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Piast Żmigród 1+ goals
84%
Piast Żmigród 2+ goals
54%
Piast Żmigród 3+ goals
27%
Odra Wodzislaw 1+ goals
78%
Odra Wodzislaw 2+ goals
44%
Odra Wodzislaw 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Piast Żmigród (draw refunded)
58%
Odra Wodzislaw (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Piast Żmigród at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.66 · 35 matches

Odra Wodzislaw away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.29 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Piast Żmigród attack 1.34 + Odra Wodzislaw defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.81

Odra Wodzislaw attack 1.35 + Piast Żmigród defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Piast Żmigród scores more
45%
level
23%
Odra Wodzislaw scores more
32%

Piast Żmigród at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Piast Żmigród will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Piast Żmigród vs Odra Wodzislaw

Piast Żmigród beat Odra Wodzislaw 2-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on November 20, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR in Żmigród.