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Odra Wodzislaw vs Piast Żmigród — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Odra Wodzislaw
Odra Wodzislaw
FT
1 – 1
Piast Żmigród
Piast Żmigród
8/7/2021III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 1Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Odra Wodzislaw41%
×Draw22%
Piast Żmigród38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Odra Wodzislaw
1.90
Piast Żmigród
1.83

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 35 away

creates per match

Odra Wodzislaw
1.68
Piast Żmigród
1.49

allows per match

Odra Wodzislaw
2.18
Piast Żmigród
2.11

finishing

Odra Wodzislaw+0.00on par
Piast Żmigród+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odra Wodzislaw ↓

Piast Żmigród →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Odra Wodzislaw or draw
62%
Odra Wodzislaw or Piast Żmigród
78%
Draw or Piast Żmigród
59%

Winning margin

Odra Wodzislaw wins by 2+
22%
Piast Żmigród wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Odra Wodzislaw 1+ goals
85%
Odra Wodzislaw 2+ goals
56%
Odra Wodzislaw 3+ goals
29%
Piast Żmigród 1+ goals
84%
Piast Żmigród 2+ goals
54%
Piast Żmigród 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Odra Wodzislaw (draw refunded)
52%
Piast Żmigród (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odra Wodzislaw at home — creates 1.68, concedes 2.18 · 34 matches

Piast Żmigród away — creates 1.49, concedes 2.11 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odra Wodzislaw attack 1.68 + Piast Żmigród defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.90

Piast Żmigród attack 1.49 + Odra Wodzislaw defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Odra Wodzislaw scores more
41%
level
22%
Piast Żmigród scores more
38%

Odra Wodzislaw at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Odra Wodzislaw will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Odra Wodzislaw 1–1 Piast Żmigród

Odra Wodzislaw and Piast Żmigród drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on August 7, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Wodzisław Śląski.