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Piast Żmigród vs Miedź Legnica II — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Piast Żmigród
Piast Żmigród
FT
1 – 1
Miedź Legnica II
Miedź Legnica II
11/28/2020III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 19Stadion OSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Piast Żmigród40%
×Draw24%
Miedź Legnica II36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Piast Żmigród
1.54
Miedź Legnica II
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 86 away

creates per match

Piast Żmigród
1.34
Miedź Legnica II
1.26

allows per match

Piast Żmigród
1.66
Miedź Legnica II
1.74

finishing

Piast Żmigród+0.00on par
Miedź Legnica II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Piast Żmigród ↓

Miedź Legnica II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Piast Żmigród or draw
64%
Piast Żmigród or Miedź Legnica II
76%
Draw or Miedź Legnica II
60%

Winning margin

Piast Żmigród wins by 2+
19%
Miedź Legnica II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Piast Żmigród 1+ goals
79%
Piast Żmigród 2+ goals
45%
Piast Żmigród 3+ goals
20%
Miedź Legnica II 1+ goals
77%
Miedź Legnica II 2+ goals
43%
Miedź Legnica II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Piast Żmigród (draw refunded)
52%
Miedź Legnica II (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Piast Żmigród at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.66 · 35 matches

Miedź Legnica II away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.74 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Piast Żmigród attack 1.34 + Miedź Legnica II defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.54

Miedź Legnica II attack 1.26 + Piast Żmigród defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Piast Żmigród scores more
40%
level
24%
Miedź Legnica II scores more
36%

Piast Żmigród at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Piast Żmigród will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Piast Żmigród vs Miedź Legnica II

Piast Żmigród and Miedź Legnica II drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on November 28, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR in Żmigród.