Miedź Legnica II 0–3 Piast Żmigród: Result & Stats

Miedź Legnica II

FT

0 – 3

Piast Żmigród

6/19/2021

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 38Stadion im. Orła Białego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Miedź Legnica II49%

×Draw21%

Piast Żmigród29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Miedź Legnica IIExpected goals in this matchPiast Żmigród

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

1.56

Miedź Legnica II

2.06

Piast Żmigród

1.56

Miedź Legnica II creates 32% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 35 away

2.02

creates per match

1.49

1.62

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Miedź Legnica II

2.02

Piast Żmigród

1.49

allows per match

Miedź Legnica II

1.62

Piast Żmigród

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Miedź Legnica II+0.00on par

Piast Żmigród+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Miedź Legnica II ↓

Piast Żmigród →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Miedź Legnica II or draw

71%

Miedź Legnica II or Piast Żmigród

79%

Draw or Piast Żmigród

51%

Winning margin

Miedź Legnica II wins by 2+

28%

Piast Żmigród wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Miedź Legnica II 1+ goals

87%

Miedź Legnica II 2+ goals

61%

Miedź Legnica II 3+ goals

34%

Piast Żmigród 1+ goals

79%

Piast Żmigród 2+ goals

46%

Piast Żmigród 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Miedź Legnica II (draw refunded)

63%

Piast Żmigród (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Miedź Legnica II at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.62 · 85 matches

Piast Żmigród away — creates 1.49, concedes 2.11 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Miedź Legnica II attack 2.02 + Piast Żmigród defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.06

Piast Żmigród attack 1.49 + Miedź Legnica II defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Miedź Legnica II scores more

49%

level

21%

Piast Żmigród scores more

29%

Miedź Legnica II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Miedź Legnica II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff