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Piast Żmigród vs Kluczbork — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Piast Żmigród
Piast Żmigród
FT
2 – 2
Kluczbork
Kluczbork
4/17/2021III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 26Stadion OSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Piast Żmigród34%
×Draw24%
Kluczbork42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Piast Żmigród
1.42
Kluczbork
1.61

Kluczbork creates 13% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 102 away

creates per match

Piast Żmigród
1.34
Kluczbork
1.57

allows per match

Piast Żmigród
1.66
Kluczbork
1.50

finishing

Piast Żmigród+0.00on par
Kluczbork+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Piast Żmigród ↓

Kluczbork →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Piast Żmigród or draw
58%
Piast Żmigród or Kluczbork
76%
Draw or Kluczbork
66%

Winning margin

Piast Żmigród wins by 2+
15%
Kluczbork wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Piast Żmigród 1+ goals
76%
Piast Żmigród 2+ goals
41%
Piast Żmigród 3+ goals
17%
Kluczbork 1+ goals
80%
Kluczbork 2+ goals
48%
Kluczbork 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Piast Żmigród (draw refunded)
45%
Kluczbork (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Piast Żmigród at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.66 · 35 matches

Kluczbork away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.50 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Piast Żmigród attack 1.34 + Kluczbork defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.42

Kluczbork attack 1.57 + Piast Żmigród defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Piast Żmigród scores more
34%
level
24%
Kluczbork scores more
42%

Kluczbork at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kluczbork will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Piast Żmigród vs Kluczbork

Piast Żmigród and Kluczbork drew 2-2 in III Liga - Group 3 on April 17, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR in Żmigród.