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Kluczbork vs Piast Żmigród — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Kluczbork
Kluczbork
FT
4 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Piast Żmigród
Piast Żmigród
4/30/2022III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 27Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Kluczbork51%
×Draw22%
Piast Żmigród27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kluczbork
2.03
Piast Żmigród
1.43

Kluczbork creates 42% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 35 away

creates per match

Kluczbork
1.95
Piast Żmigród
1.49

allows per match

Kluczbork
1.36
Piast Żmigród
2.11

finishing

Kluczbork+0.00on par
Piast Żmigród+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kluczbork ↓

Piast Żmigród →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Kluczbork or draw
73%
Kluczbork or Piast Żmigród
78%
Draw or Piast Żmigród
49%

Winning margin

Kluczbork wins by 2+
30%
Piast Żmigród wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Kluczbork 1+ goals
87%
Kluczbork 2+ goals
60%
Kluczbork 3+ goals
33%
Piast Żmigród 1+ goals
76%
Piast Żmigród 2+ goals
42%
Piast Żmigród 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Kluczbork (draw refunded)
65%
Piast Żmigród (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kluczbork at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.36 · 103 matches

Piast Żmigród away — creates 1.49, concedes 2.11 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kluczbork attack 1.95 + Piast Żmigród defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.03

Piast Żmigród attack 1.49 + Kluczbork defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Kluczbork scores more
51%
level
22%
Piast Żmigród scores more
27%

Kluczbork at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Kluczbork will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kluczbork vs Piast Żmigród

Kluczbork beat Piast Żmigród 4-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on April 30, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Kluczbork.