Piast Żmigród 0–0 Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

Piast Żmigród

FT

0 – 0

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

6/12/2021

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 37Stadion OSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Piast Żmigród40%

×Draw24%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Piast ŻmigródExpected goals in this matchGwarek Tarnowskie Góry

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.52

Piast Żmigród

1.59

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 69 away

1.34

creates per match

1.39

1.66

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Piast Żmigród

1.34

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

1.39

allows per match

Piast Żmigród

1.66

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Piast Żmigród+0.00on par

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Piast Żmigród ↓

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Piast Żmigród or draw

63%

Piast Żmigród or Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

76%

Draw or Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

60%

Winning margin

Piast Żmigród wins by 2+

20%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Piast Żmigród 1+ goals

80%

Piast Żmigród 2+ goals

47%

Piast Żmigród 3+ goals

21%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 1+ goals

78%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 2+ goals

45%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Piast Żmigród (draw refunded)

52%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Piast Żmigród at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.66 · 35 matches

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.84 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Piast Żmigród attack 1.34 + Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.59

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry attack 1.39 + Piast Żmigród defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Piast Żmigród scores more

40%

level

24%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry scores more

37%

Piast Żmigród at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Piast Żmigród will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff