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Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry vs Piast Żmigród — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Piast Żmigród
Piast Żmigród
4/9/2022III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 23Stadion Towarzystwa Sportowego Gwarek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry45%
×Draw23%
Piast Żmigród32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.80
Piast Żmigród
1.47

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry creates 22% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 35 away

creates per match

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.49
Piast Żmigród
1.49

allows per match

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.45
Piast Żmigród
2.11

finishing

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry+0.00on par
Piast Żmigród+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry ↓

Piast Żmigród →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry or draw
68%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry or Piast Żmigród
77%
Draw or Piast Żmigród
55%

Winning margin

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry wins by 2+
24%
Piast Żmigród wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 1+ goals
83%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 2+ goals
54%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 3+ goals
27%
Piast Żmigród 1+ goals
77%
Piast Żmigród 2+ goals
43%
Piast Żmigród 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry (draw refunded)
59%
Piast Żmigród (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.45 · 69 matches

Piast Żmigród away — creates 1.49, concedes 2.11 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry attack 1.49 + Piast Żmigród defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.80

Piast Żmigród attack 1.49 + Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry scores more
45%
level
23%
Piast Żmigród scores more
32%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry vs Piast Żmigród

Piast Żmigród beat Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 3-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on April 9, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Towarzystwa Sportowego Gwarek in Tarnowskie Góry.