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Piast Żmigród vs Carina Gubin — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Piast Żmigród
Piast Żmigród
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Carina Gubin
Carina Gubin
4/27/2022III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 26Stadion OSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Piast Żmigród35%
×Draw24%
Carina Gubin41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Piast Żmigród
1.43
Carina Gubin
1.58

Carina Gubin creates 10% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 85 away

creates per match

Piast Żmigród
1.34
Carina Gubin
1.51

allows per match

Piast Żmigród
1.66
Carina Gubin
1.51

finishing

Piast Żmigród+0.00on par
Carina Gubin+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Piast Żmigród ↓

Carina Gubin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Piast Żmigród or draw
59%
Piast Żmigród or Carina Gubin
76%
Draw or Carina Gubin
65%

Winning margin

Piast Żmigród wins by 2+
16%
Carina Gubin wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Piast Żmigród 1+ goals
76%
Piast Żmigród 2+ goals
42%
Piast Żmigród 3+ goals
17%
Carina Gubin 1+ goals
79%
Carina Gubin 2+ goals
47%
Carina Gubin 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Piast Żmigród (draw refunded)
46%
Carina Gubin (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Piast Żmigród at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.66 · 35 matches

Carina Gubin away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.51 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Piast Żmigród attack 1.34 + Carina Gubin defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.43

Carina Gubin attack 1.51 + Piast Żmigród defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Piast Żmigród scores more
35%
level
24%
Carina Gubin scores more
41%

Carina Gubin at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Carina Gubin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Piast Żmigród vs Carina Gubin

Piast Żmigród beat Carina Gubin 2-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on April 27, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR in Żmigród.