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Carina Gubin vs Piast Żmigród — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Carina Gubin
Carina Gubin
FT
4 – 1
Piast Żmigród
Piast Żmigród
9/19/2021III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 9Stadion Miejski Gubin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Carina Gubin46%
×Draw23%
Piast Żmigród31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carina Gubin
1.74
Piast Żmigród
1.39

Carina Gubin creates 25% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 35 away

creates per match

Carina Gubin
1.38
Piast Żmigród
1.49

allows per match

Carina Gubin
1.29
Piast Żmigród
2.11

finishing

Carina Gubin+0.00on par
Piast Żmigród+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carina Gubin ↓

Piast Żmigród →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Carina Gubin or draw
69%
Carina Gubin or Piast Żmigród
77%
Draw or Piast Żmigród
54%

Winning margin

Carina Gubin wins by 2+
24%
Piast Żmigród wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Carina Gubin 1+ goals
82%
Carina Gubin 2+ goals
52%
Carina Gubin 3+ goals
25%
Piast Żmigród 1+ goals
75%
Piast Żmigród 2+ goals
40%
Piast Żmigród 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Carina Gubin (draw refunded)
60%
Piast Żmigród (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carina Gubin at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.29 · 84 matches

Piast Żmigród away — creates 1.49, concedes 2.11 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carina Gubin attack 1.38 + Piast Żmigród defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.74

Piast Żmigród attack 1.49 + Carina Gubin defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Carina Gubin scores more
46%
level
23%
Piast Żmigród scores more
31%

Carina Gubin at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Carina Gubin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Carina Gubin vs Piast Żmigród

Carina Gubin beat Piast Żmigród 4-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on September 19, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski Gubin in Gubin.