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Piast Gliwice vs Puszcza Niepołomice — Ekstraklasa 2018

Piast Gliwice
Piast Gliwice
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Puszcza Niepołomice
Puszcza Niepołomice
9/15/2024EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 8Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Piast Gliwice55%
×Draw25%
Puszcza Niepołomice20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Piast Gliwice
1.57
Puszcza Niepołomice
0.84

Piast Gliwice creates 87% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 34 away

creates per match

Piast Gliwice
1.32
Puszcza Niepołomice
0.76

allows per match

Piast Gliwice
0.93
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.82

finishing

Piast Gliwice+0.00on par
Puszcza Niepołomice+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Piast Gliwice ↓

Puszcza Niepołomice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Piast Gliwice or draw
80%
Piast Gliwice or Puszcza Niepołomice
75%
Draw or Puszcza Niepołomice
45%

Winning margin

Piast Gliwice wins by 2+
29%
Puszcza Niepołomice wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Piast Gliwice 1+ goals
79%
Piast Gliwice 2+ goals
46%
Piast Gliwice 3+ goals
21%
Puszcza Niepołomice 1+ goals
57%
Puszcza Niepołomice 2+ goals
21%
Puszcza Niepołomice 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Piast Gliwice (draw refunded)
73%
Puszcza Niepołomice (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Piast Gliwice at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.93 · 138 matches

Puszcza Niepołomice away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.82 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Piast Gliwice attack 1.32 + Puszcza Niepołomice defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.57

Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.76 + Piast Gliwice defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Piast Gliwice scores more
55%
level
25%
Puszcza Niepołomice scores more
20%

Piast Gliwice at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Piast Gliwice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ekstraklasa: Piast Gliwice 1–1 Puszcza Niepołomice

Piast Gliwice and Puszcza Niepołomice drew 1-1 in Ekstraklasa on September 15, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Gliwice.