Piast Gliwice 2–1 Puszcza Niepołomice

Piast Gliwice

FT

2 – 1

Puszcza Niepołomice

8/8/2020

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadion Gmina Ustrzyki Dolne

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Piast Gliwice62%

×Draw21%

Puszcza Niepołomice17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Piast GliwiceExpected goals in this matchPuszcza Niepołomice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

0.95

Piast Gliwice

2.02

Puszcza Niepołomice

0.95

Piast Gliwice creates 113% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 13 away

1.67

creates per match

1.23

0.67

allows per match

2.38

creates per match

Piast Gliwice

1.67

Puszcza Niepołomice

1.23

allows per match

Piast Gliwice

0.67

Puszcza Niepołomice

2.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Piast Gliwice+0.00on par

Puszcza Niepołomice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Piast Gliwice ↓

Puszcza Niepołomice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Piast Gliwice or draw

83%

Piast Gliwice or Puszcza Niepołomice

79%

Draw or Puszcza Niepołomice

38%

Winning margin

Piast Gliwice wins by 2+

38%

Puszcza Niepołomice wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Piast Gliwice 1+ goals

87%

Piast Gliwice 2+ goals

60%

Piast Gliwice 3+ goals

33%

Puszcza Niepołomice 1+ goals

61%

Puszcza Niepołomice 2+ goals

25%

Puszcza Niepołomice 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Piast Gliwice (draw refunded)

78%

Puszcza Niepołomice (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Piast Gliwice at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

Puszcza Niepołomice away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Piast Gliwice attack 1.67 + Puszcza Niepołomice defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.02

Puszcza Niepołomice attack 1.23 + Piast Gliwice defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Piast Gliwice scores more

62%

level

21%

Puszcza Niepołomice scores more

17%

Piast Gliwice at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Piast Gliwice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff