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Piast Gliwice vs Lechia Gdansk — Ekstraklasa 2026

Piast Gliwice
Piast Gliwice
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Lechia Gdansk
Lechia Gdansk
M. Terrazzino 30'
5/27/2023EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 34Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Piast Gliwice45%
×Draw24%
Lechia Gdansk31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Piast Gliwice
1.63
Lechia Gdansk
1.31

Piast Gliwice creates 24% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 17 away

creates per match

Piast Gliwice
1.51
Lechia Gdansk
1.62

allows per match

Piast Gliwice
1.00
Lechia Gdansk
1.75

finishing

Piast Gliwice-0.29scores less
Lechia Gdansk-0.21scores less

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Piast Gliwice ↓

Lechia Gdansk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Piast Gliwice or draw
69%
Piast Gliwice or Lechia Gdansk
76%
Draw or Lechia Gdansk
55%

Winning margin

Piast Gliwice wins by 2+
23%
Lechia Gdansk wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Piast Gliwice 1+ goals
80%
Piast Gliwice 2+ goals
48%
Piast Gliwice 3+ goals
22%
Lechia Gdansk 1+ goals
73%
Lechia Gdansk 2+ goals
38%
Lechia Gdansk 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Piast Gliwice (draw refunded)
59%
Lechia Gdansk (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Piast Gliwice at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.00 · 36 matches

Lechia Gdansk away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.75 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Piast Gliwice attack 1.51 + Lechia Gdansk defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.63

Lechia Gdansk attack 1.62 + Piast Gliwice defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Piast Gliwice scores more
45%
level
24%
Lechia Gdansk scores more
31%

Piast Gliwice at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Piast Gliwice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12
D. KuciakLechia GdanskLechia Gdansk · G
7.7

Match Events

2'
F. Plach← J. Szmatuła
30'
M. Terrazzino↳ K. Sezonienko
62'
M. Ameyaw

Possession

62%Piast

Shots

8Piast

Pass accuracy

52%Piast

Statistics

PiastLechia
Overview
62%Possession38%
8Total Shots5
6Corners1
9Fouls6
Shots
8Total Shots5
3On Target1
3Off Target2
2Blocked2
6Inside Box3
2Outside Box2
Passing
62%Possession38%
410Total Passes255
355Accurate Passes205
87%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
0Saves3
Discipline
9Fouls6
1Yellow Cards0
2Offsides2

Ekstraklasa: Piast Gliwice 0–1 Lechia Gdansk

Lechia Gdansk beat Piast Gliwice 1-0 in Ekstraklasa on May 27, 2023.

Goals: M. Terrazzino (30').

Piast Gliwice controlled possession (62%) and registered 8 shots to 5.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Gliwice.