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Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice — Ekstraklasa 2026

Lechia Gdansk
Lechia Gdansk
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Piast Gliwice
Piast Gliwice
A. Tsarenko 82'
B. Viunnyk 44'
T. Bobček 8'
S. Weirauch 54' (OG)
4/26/2025EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 30Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Lechia Gdansk41%
×Draw24%
Piast Gliwice35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lechia Gdansk
1.58
Piast Gliwice
1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 32 away

creates per match

Lechia Gdansk
1.57
Piast Gliwice
1.38

allows per match

Lechia Gdansk
1.52
Piast Gliwice
1.58

finishing

Lechia Gdansk+0.04on par
Piast Gliwice-0.13scores less

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lechia Gdansk ↓

Piast Gliwice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Lechia Gdansk or draw
65%
Lechia Gdansk or Piast Gliwice
76%
Draw or Piast Gliwice
59%

Winning margin

Lechia Gdansk wins by 2+
20%
Piast Gliwice wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Lechia Gdansk 1+ goals
79%
Lechia Gdansk 2+ goals
47%
Lechia Gdansk 3+ goals
21%
Piast Gliwice 1+ goals
77%
Piast Gliwice 2+ goals
42%
Piast Gliwice 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Lechia Gdansk (draw refunded)
54%
Piast Gliwice (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lechia Gdansk at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.52 · 23 matches

Piast Gliwice away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.58 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lechia Gdansk attack 1.57 + Piast Gliwice defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.58

Piast Gliwice attack 1.38 + Lechia Gdansk defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Lechia Gdansk scores more
41%
level
24%
Piast Gliwice scores more
35%

Lechia Gdansk at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Lechia Gdansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30
M. KhlanLechia GdanskLechia Gdansk · M
7.9

Match Events

8'
T. Bobček
44'
B. Viunnyk↳ M. Khlan
46'
M. Szczepański← Miguel Muñoz
52'
T. Neugebauer← T. Bobček
54'
S. WeirauchOwn goal
67'
G. Tomasiewicz← M. Chrapek
67'
T. Gale← E. Jirka
72'
F. Piasecki← M. Rosołek
77'
M. Głogowski← B. Viunnyk
78'
A. Tsarenko← R. Kapič
82'
A. Tsarenko↳ C. Mena
88'
Fabian Piasecki
89'
L. Pitan← T. Huk
90'
T. Wójtowicz← C. Mena

Possession

43%Lechia

Shots

11Lechia

Pass accuracy

47%Lechia

Statistics

LechiaPiast
Overview
43%Possession57%
11Total Shots11
1.49Expected Goals (xG)1.42
4Corners3
15Fouls10
Shots
11Total Shots11
6On Target3
4Off Target6
1Blocked2
9Inside Box9
2Outside Box2
Passing
43%Possession57%
374Total Passes497
274Accurate Passes406
73%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
15Fouls10
0Yellow Cards1
1Offsides1

Ekstraklasa: Lechia Gdansk 3–1 Piast Gliwice

Lechia Gdansk beat Piast Gliwice 3-1 in Ekstraklasa on April 26, 2025.

Goals: T. Bobček (8'), B. Viunnyk (44'), S. Weirauch (54' o.g.), A. Tsarenko (82').

Piast Gliwice controlled possession (57%) and registered 11 shots to 11.

The match was played at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk in Gdańsk.