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Piast Gliwice vs Lechia Gdansk — Ekstraklasa 2026

Piast Gliwice
Piast Gliwice
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Lechia Gdansk
Lechia Gdansk
J. Czerwiński 32'
J. Świerczok 3' (pen)
11/23/2020EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 10Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Piast Gliwice47%
×Draw24%
Lechia Gdansk29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Piast Gliwice
1.68
Lechia Gdansk
1.25

Piast Gliwice creates 34% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 21 away

creates per match

Piast Gliwice
1.54
Lechia Gdansk
1.48

allows per match

Piast Gliwice
1.02
Lechia Gdansk
1.81

finishing

Piast Gliwice-0.30scores less
Lechia Gdansk+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Piast Gliwice ↓

Lechia Gdansk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Piast Gliwice or draw
71%
Piast Gliwice or Lechia Gdansk
76%
Draw or Lechia Gdansk
53%

Winning margin

Piast Gliwice wins by 2+
25%
Lechia Gdansk wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Piast Gliwice 1+ goals
81%
Piast Gliwice 2+ goals
50%
Piast Gliwice 3+ goals
24%
Lechia Gdansk 1+ goals
71%
Lechia Gdansk 2+ goals
36%
Lechia Gdansk 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Piast Gliwice (draw refunded)
62%
Lechia Gdansk (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Piast Gliwice at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.02 · 37 matches

Lechia Gdansk away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.81 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Piast Gliwice attack 1.54 + Lechia Gdansk defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.68

Lechia Gdansk attack 1.48 + Piast Gliwice defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Piast Gliwice scores more
47%
level
24%
Lechia Gdansk scores more
29%

Piast Gliwice at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Piast Gliwice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
J. ŚwierczokPenalty
32'
J. Czerwiński↳ Gerard Badía
41'
Omran Haydary
43'
Jakub Czerwiński
46'
L. Zwoliński← Omran Haydary
60'
Tiago Alves← J. Świerczok
64'
M. Żukowski← Conrado
64'
M. Gajos← J. Kałuziński
68'
Michał Chrapek
70'
T. Jodłowiec← Gerard Badía
71'
Zlatan Alomerović
74'
J. Mihalík← K. Saief
79'
Mateusz Zukowski
84'
E. Vikri← K. Fila

Possession

35%Piast

Shots

6Piast

Statistics

PiastLechia
Overview
35%Possession65%
6Total Shots7
0Corners9
18Fouls19
Shots
6Total Shots7
4On Target2
2Off Target5
Passing
35%Possession65%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
18Fouls19
2Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0
2Offsides3

Match Recap: Piast Gliwice vs Lechia Gdansk

Piast Gliwice beat Lechia Gdansk 2-0 in Ekstraklasa on November 23, 2020.

Goals: J. Świerczok (3' pen), J. Czerwiński (32').

Lechia Gdansk controlled possession (65%) and registered 7 shots to 6.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Gliwice.