Piast Gliwice 1–0 Ferencvarosi TC: Result & Stats

Piast Gliwice

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Ferencvarosi TC

1/15/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Piast Gliwice41%

×Draw29%

Ferencvarosi TC30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Piast GliwiceExpected goals in this matchFerencvarosi TC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

0.97

Piast Gliwice

1.20

Ferencvarosi TC

0.97

Piast Gliwice creates 24% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 11 away

1.67

creates per match

1.27

0.67

allows per match

0.73

creates per match

Piast Gliwice

1.67

Ferencvarosi TC

1.27

allows per match

Piast Gliwice

0.67

Ferencvarosi TC

0.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Piast Gliwice+0.00on par

Ferencvarosi TC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Piast Gliwice ↓

Ferencvarosi TC →

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Piast Gliwice or draw

70%

Piast Gliwice or Ferencvarosi TC

71%

Draw or Ferencvarosi TC

59%

Winning margin

Piast Gliwice wins by 2+

18%

Ferencvarosi TC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Piast Gliwice 1+ goals

70%

Piast Gliwice 2+ goals

34%

Piast Gliwice 3+ goals

12%

Ferencvarosi TC 1+ goals

62%

Ferencvarosi TC 2+ goals

25%

Ferencvarosi TC 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Piast Gliwice (draw refunded)

58%

Ferencvarosi TC (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Piast Gliwice at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

Ferencvarosi TC away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Piast Gliwice attack 1.67 + Ferencvarosi TC defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.20

Ferencvarosi TC attack 1.27 + Piast Gliwice defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Piast Gliwice scores more

41%

level

29%

Ferencvarosi TC scores more

30%

Piast Gliwice at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Piast Gliwice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff