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Ferencvarosi TC vs Piast Gliwice — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Ferencvarosi TC
Ferencvarosi TC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Piast Gliwice
Piast Gliwice
1/18/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5Estadio Camilo Cano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Ferencvarosi TC60%
×Draw24%
Piast Gliwice16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ferencvarosi TC
1.65
Piast Gliwice
0.72

Ferencvarosi TC creates 129% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

creates per match

Ferencvarosi TC
2.00
Piast Gliwice
0.70

allows per match

Ferencvarosi TC
0.75
Piast Gliwice
1.30

finishing

Ferencvarosi TC+0.00on par
Piast Gliwice+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferencvarosi TC ↓

Piast Gliwice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ferencvarosi TC or draw
84%
Ferencvarosi TC or Piast Gliwice
76%
Draw or Piast Gliwice
40%

Winning margin

Ferencvarosi TC wins by 2+
33%
Piast Gliwice wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Ferencvarosi TC 1+ goals
81%
Ferencvarosi TC 2+ goals
49%
Ferencvarosi TC 3+ goals
23%
Piast Gliwice 1+ goals
51%
Piast Gliwice 2+ goals
16%
Piast Gliwice 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Ferencvarosi TC (draw refunded)
79%
Piast Gliwice (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferencvarosi TC at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches

Piast Gliwice away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferencvarosi TC attack 2.00 + Piast Gliwice defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.65

Piast Gliwice attack 0.70 + Ferencvarosi TC defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Ferencvarosi TC scores more
60%
level
24%
Piast Gliwice scores more
16%

Ferencvarosi TC at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Ferencvarosi TC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ferencvarosi TC vs Piast Gliwice

Ferencvarosi TC beat Piast Gliwice 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 18, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Camilo Cano in La Nucía.