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Phuntsholing Heroes vs Paro — Premier League 2023

Phuntsholing Heroes
Phuntsholing Heroes
FT
1 – 7
HT: 1 – 3
Paro
Paro
9/13/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 8PSA Phuentsholing Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Phuntsholing Heroes10%
×Draw11%
Paro79%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Phuntsholing Heroes
1.38
Paro
3.83

Paro creates 178% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 32 away

creates per match

Phuntsholing Heroes
2.00
Paro
3.88

allows per match

Phuntsholing Heroes
3.78
Paro
0.75

finishing

Phuntsholing Heroes+0.00on par
Paro+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Phuntsholing Heroes ↓

Paro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–24%
0–36%
0–45%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–26%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–24%
2–35%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 72% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
74%26%4.5
55%45%

Double chance

Phuntsholing Heroes or draw
21%
Phuntsholing Heroes or Paro
89%
Draw or Paro
90%

Winning margin

Phuntsholing Heroes wins by 2+
4%
Paro wins by 2+
62%

Team goals

Phuntsholing Heroes 1+ goals
75%
Phuntsholing Heroes 2+ goals
40%
Phuntsholing Heroes 3+ goals
16%
Paro 1+ goals
98%
Paro 2+ goals
88%
Paro 3+ goals
71%

Draw no bet

Phuntsholing Heroes (draw refunded)
11%
Paro (draw refunded)
89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Phuntsholing Heroes at home — creates 2.00, concedes 3.78 · 9 matches

Paro away — creates 3.88, concedes 0.75 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Phuntsholing Heroes attack 2.00 + Paro defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.38

Paro attack 3.88 + Phuntsholing Heroes defence 3.78 → ÷2 → 3.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Phuntsholing Heroes scores more
10%
level
11%
Paro scores more
79%

Paro at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Paro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Phuntsholing Heroes vs Paro

Paro beat Phuntsholing Heroes 7-1 in Premier League on September 13, 2024.

The match was played at PSA Phuentsholing Stadium in Phuentsholing.