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Paro vs Phuntsholing Heroes — Premier League 2023

Paro
Paro
FT
6 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Phuntsholing Heroes
Phuntsholing Heroes
7/7/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 4Woochu Sports Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Paro83%
×Draw11%
Phuntsholing Heroes7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Paro
3.41
Phuntsholing Heroes
0.91

Paro creates 275% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 9 away

creates per match

Paro
4.71
Phuntsholing Heroes
0.78

allows per match

Paro
1.03
Phuntsholing Heroes
2.11

finishing

Paro+0.00on par
Phuntsholing Heroes+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paro ↓

Phuntsholing Heroes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–14%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Paro or draw
93%
Paro or Phuntsholing Heroes
89%
Draw or Phuntsholing Heroes
17%

Winning margin

Paro wins by 2+
65%
Phuntsholing Heroes wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Paro 1+ goals
96%
Paro 2+ goals
85%
Paro 3+ goals
64%
Phuntsholing Heroes 1+ goals
60%
Phuntsholing Heroes 2+ goals
23%
Phuntsholing Heroes 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Paro (draw refunded)
93%
Phuntsholing Heroes (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paro at home — creates 4.71, concedes 1.03 · 31 matches

Phuntsholing Heroes away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paro attack 4.71 + Phuntsholing Heroes defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 3.41

Phuntsholing Heroes attack 0.78 + Paro defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Paro scores more
83%
level
11%
Phuntsholing Heroes scores more
7%

Paro at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Paro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Paro 6–2 Phuntsholing Heroes

Paro beat Phuntsholing Heroes 6-2 in Premier League on July 7, 2024.

The match was played at Woochu Sports Arena in Paro.