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Phuntsholing Heroes vs Daga United — Premier League 2023

Phuntsholing Heroes
Phuntsholing Heroes
FT
7 – 4
Daga United
Daga United
9/2/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 7PSA Phuentsholing Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Phuntsholing Heroes52%
×Draw17%
Daga United30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Phuntsholing Heroes
3.17
Daga United
2.44

Phuntsholing Heroes creates 30% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Phuntsholing Heroes
2.00
Daga United
1.11

allows per match

Phuntsholing Heroes
3.78
Daga United
4.33

finishing

Phuntsholing Heroes+0.00on par
Daga United+0.00on par

Total goals

91%Over
  • Over91
  • Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

87%Yes
  • Yes87
  • No13

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Phuntsholing Heroes ↓

Daga United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–24%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–25%
4–34%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
91%9%3.5
80%20%4.5
64%36%

Double chance

Phuntsholing Heroes or draw
70%
Phuntsholing Heroes or Daga United
83%
Draw or Daga United
48%

Winning margin

Phuntsholing Heroes wins by 2+
34%
Daga United wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Phuntsholing Heroes 1+ goals
96%
Phuntsholing Heroes 2+ goals
82%
Phuntsholing Heroes 3+ goals
60%
Daga United 1+ goals
91%
Daga United 2+ goals
70%
Daga United 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Phuntsholing Heroes (draw refunded)
63%
Daga United (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
84%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Phuntsholing Heroes at home — creates 2.00, concedes 3.78 · 9 matches

Daga United away — creates 1.11, concedes 4.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Phuntsholing Heroes attack 2.00 + Daga United defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 3.17

Daga United attack 1.11 + Phuntsholing Heroes defence 3.78 → ÷2 → 2.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Phuntsholing Heroes scores more
52%
level
17%
Daga United scores more
30%

Phuntsholing Heroes at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Phuntsholing Heroes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Phuntsholing Heroes vs Daga United

Phuntsholing Heroes beat Daga United 7-4 in Premier League on September 2, 2024.

The match was played at PSA Phuentsholing Stadium in Phuentsholing.