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Daga United vs Phuntsholing Heroes — Premier League 2023

Daga United
Daga United
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Phuntsholing Heroes
Phuntsholing Heroes
6/23/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3Dagapela Artificial Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Daga United30%
×Draw20%
Phuntsholing Heroes49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Daga United
1.77
Phuntsholing Heroes
2.28

Phuntsholing Heroes creates 29% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Daga United
1.44
Phuntsholing Heroes
0.78

allows per match

Daga United
3.78
Phuntsholing Heroes
2.11

finishing

Daga United+0.00on par
Phuntsholing Heroes+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Daga United ↓

Phuntsholing Heroes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Daga United or draw
51%
Daga United or Phuntsholing Heroes
80%
Draw or Phuntsholing Heroes
70%

Winning margin

Daga United wins by 2+
15%
Phuntsholing Heroes wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Daga United 1+ goals
83%
Daga United 2+ goals
53%
Daga United 3+ goals
26%
Phuntsholing Heroes 1+ goals
90%
Phuntsholing Heroes 2+ goals
66%
Phuntsholing Heroes 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Daga United (draw refunded)
38%
Phuntsholing Heroes (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Daga United at home — creates 1.44, concedes 3.78 · 9 matches

Phuntsholing Heroes away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Daga United attack 1.44 + Phuntsholing Heroes defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.77

Phuntsholing Heroes attack 0.78 + Daga United defence 3.78 → ÷2 → 2.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Daga United scores more
30%
level
20%
Phuntsholing Heroes scores more
49%

Phuntsholing Heroes at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Phuntsholing Heroes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Daga United 1–1 Phuntsholing Heroes

Daga United and Phuntsholing Heroes drew 1-1 in Premier League on June 23, 2024.

The match was played at Dagapela Artificial Turf in Dagapela.