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Phú Thọ vs Pho Hien — V.League 2 2020

Phú Thọ
Phú Thọ
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Pho Hien
Pho Hien
12/9/2023V.League 2V.League 2 · Round 6Sân vận động Việt Trì

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Phú Thọ19%
×Draw30%
Pho Hien51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Phú Thọ
0.65
Pho Hien
1.27

Pho Hien creates 95% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 52 away

creates per match

Phú Thọ
0.67
Pho Hien
1.15

allows per match

Phú Thọ
1.39
Pho Hien
0.62

finishing

Phú Thọ+0.00on par
Pho Hien+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Phú Thọ ↓

Pho Hien →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–119%
0–212%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Phú Thọ or draw
49%
Phú Thọ or Pho Hien
70%
Draw or Pho Hien
81%

Winning margin

Phú Thọ wins by 2+
5%
Pho Hien wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Phú Thọ 1+ goals
48%
Phú Thọ 2+ goals
14%
Phú Thọ 3+ goals
3%
Pho Hien 1+ goals
72%
Pho Hien 2+ goals
36%
Pho Hien 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Phú Thọ (draw refunded)
27%
Pho Hien (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Phú Thọ at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.39 · 33 matches

Pho Hien away — creates 1.15, concedes 0.62 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Phú Thọ attack 0.67 + Pho Hien defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.65

Pho Hien attack 1.15 + Phú Thọ defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Phú Thọ scores more
19%
level
30%
Pho Hien scores more
51%

Pho Hien at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Pho Hien will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Phú Thọ 0 – 1 Pho Hien

Pho Hien beat Phú Thọ 1-0 in V.League 2 on December 9, 2023.

The match was played at Sân vận động Việt Trì in Việt Trì.