Phú Thọ 0–2 Pho Hien: Result & Stats | Cup

Phú Thọ

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Pho Hien

7/7/2023

Cup · Round of 16Sân vận động Việt Trì

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Phú Thọ26%

×Draw19%

Pho Hien56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Phú ThọExpected goals in this matchPho Hien

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

2.63

Phú Thọ

1.77

Pho Hien

2.63

Pho Hien creates 49% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

1.33

creates per match

1.60

3.67

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

Phú Thọ

1.33

Pho Hien

1.60

allows per match

Phú Thọ

3.67

Pho Hien

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Phú Thọ+0.00on par

Pho Hien+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Phú Thọ ↓

Pho Hien →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

44%56%

Double chance

Phú Thọ or draw

44%

Phú Thọ or Pho Hien

81%

Draw or Pho Hien

74%

Winning margin

Phú Thọ wins by 2+

12%

Pho Hien wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

Phú Thọ 1+ goals

83%

Phú Thọ 2+ goals

53%

Phú Thọ 3+ goals

26%

Pho Hien 1+ goals

93%

Pho Hien 2+ goals

73%

Pho Hien 3+ goals

48%

Draw no bet

Phú Thọ (draw refunded)

32%

Pho Hien (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Phú Thọ at home — creates 1.33, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

Pho Hien away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Phú Thọ attack 1.33 + Pho Hien defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.77

Pho Hien attack 1.60 + Phú Thọ defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Phú Thọ scores more

26%

level

19%

Pho Hien scores more

56%

Pho Hien at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Pho Hien will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff