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Phú Thọ vs Long An — Cup 2019

Phú Thọ
Phú Thọ
FT
2 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
Long An
Long An
11/24/2023CupCup · 1st RoundSân vận động Việt Trì

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Phú Thọ25%
×Draw19%
Long An55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Phú Thọ
1.67
Long An
2.50

Long An creates 50% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Phú Thọ
1.33
Long An
1.33

allows per match

Phú Thọ
3.67
Long An
2.00

finishing

Phú Thọ+0.00on par
Long An+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Phú Thọ ↓

Long An →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Phú Thọ or draw
45%
Phú Thọ or Long An
81%
Draw or Long An
75%

Winning margin

Phú Thọ wins by 2+
12%
Long An wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Phú Thọ 1+ goals
81%
Phú Thọ 2+ goals
50%
Phú Thọ 3+ goals
23%
Long An 1+ goals
92%
Long An 2+ goals
71%
Long An 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Phú Thọ (draw refunded)
31%
Long An (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Phú Thọ at home — creates 1.33, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

Long An away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Phú Thọ attack 1.33 + Long An defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Long An attack 1.33 + Phú Thọ defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Phú Thọ scores more
25%
level
19%
Long An scores more
55%

Long An at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Long An will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Phú Thọ 2–5 Long An

Long An beat Phú Thọ 5-2 in Cup on November 24, 2023.

The match was played at Sân vận động Việt Trì in Việt Trì.