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Long An vs Phú Thọ — V.League 2 2020

Long An
Long An
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Phú Thọ
Phú Thọ
4/12/2023V.League 2V.League 2 · Round 2Sân vận động Long An

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Long An53%
×Draw26%
Phú Thọ21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Long An
1.54
Phú Thọ
0.86

Long An creates 79% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 33 away

creates per match

Long An
1.33
Phú Thọ
0.73

allows per match

Long An
1.00
Phú Thọ
1.76

finishing

Long An+0.00on par
Phú Thọ+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Long An ↓

Phú Thọ →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Long An or draw
79%
Long An or Phú Thọ
74%
Draw or Phú Thọ
47%

Winning margin

Long An wins by 2+
28%
Phú Thọ wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Long An 1+ goals
79%
Long An 2+ goals
45%
Long An 3+ goals
20%
Phú Thọ 1+ goals
58%
Phú Thọ 2+ goals
21%
Phú Thọ 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Long An (draw refunded)
72%
Phú Thọ (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Long An at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 63 matches

Phú Thọ away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.76 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Long An attack 1.33 + Phú Thọ defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.54

Phú Thọ attack 0.73 + Long An defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Long An scores more
53%
level
26%
Phú Thọ scores more
21%

Long An at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Long An will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Long An vs Phú Thọ

Long An and Phú Thọ drew 1-1 in V.League 2 on April 12, 2023.

The match was played at Sân vận động Long An in Tan An.