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Phú Thọ vs Long An — V.League 2 2020

Phú Thọ
Phú Thọ
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Long An
Long An
7/16/2022V.League 2V.League 2 · Round 7Sân vận động Việt Trì

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Phú Thọ35%
×Draw29%
Long An37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Phú Thọ
1.10
Long An
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 62 away

creates per match

Phú Thọ
0.67
Long An
0.89

allows per match

Phú Thọ
1.39
Long An
1.53

finishing

Phú Thọ+0.00on par
Long An+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Phú Thọ ↓

Long An →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Phú Thọ or draw
63%
Phú Thọ or Long An
71%
Draw or Long An
65%

Winning margin

Phú Thọ wins by 2+
14%
Long An wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Phú Thọ 1+ goals
67%
Phú Thọ 2+ goals
30%
Phú Thọ 3+ goals
10%
Long An 1+ goals
68%
Long An 2+ goals
32%
Long An 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Phú Thọ (draw refunded)
49%
Long An (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Phú Thọ at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.39 · 33 matches

Long An away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.53 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Phú Thọ attack 0.67 + Long An defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.10

Long An attack 0.89 + Phú Thọ defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Phú Thọ scores more
35%
level
29%
Long An scores more
37%

Long An at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Long An will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

V.League 2: Phú Thọ 1–0 Long An

Phú Thọ beat Long An 1-0 in V.League 2 on July 16, 2022.

The match was played at Sân vận động Việt Trì in Việt Trì.