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Phú Thọ vs Dong Nai — V.League 2 2020

Phú Thọ
Phú Thọ
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Dong Nai
Dong Nai
3/8/2024V.League 2V.League 2 · Round 12Sân vận động Việt Trì

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Phú Thọ39%
×Draw31%
Dong Nai30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Phú Thọ
1.08
Dong Nai
0.90

Phú Thọ creates 20% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 20 away

creates per match

Phú Thọ
0.67
Dong Nai
0.40

allows per match

Phú Thọ
1.39
Dong Nai
1.50

finishing

Phú Thọ+0.00on par
Dong Nai+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Phú Thọ ↓

Dong Nai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Phú Thọ or draw
70%
Phú Thọ or Dong Nai
69%
Draw or Dong Nai
61%

Winning margin

Phú Thọ wins by 2+
16%
Dong Nai wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Phú Thọ 1+ goals
66%
Phú Thọ 2+ goals
29%
Phú Thọ 3+ goals
10%
Dong Nai 1+ goals
59%
Dong Nai 2+ goals
23%
Dong Nai 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Phú Thọ (draw refunded)
57%
Dong Nai (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Phú Thọ at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.39 · 33 matches

Dong Nai away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.50 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Phú Thọ attack 0.67 + Dong Nai defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.08

Dong Nai attack 0.40 + Phú Thọ defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Phú Thọ scores more
39%
level
31%
Dong Nai scores more
30%

Phú Thọ at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Phú Thọ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

V.League 2: Phú Thọ 1–0 Dong Nai

Phú Thọ beat Dong Nai 1-0 in V.League 2 on March 8, 2024.

The match was played at Sân vận động Việt Trì in Việt Trì.