Dong Nai 3–0 Phú Thọ: Result & Stats | V.League 2

Dong Nai

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Phú Thọ

12/24/2023

V.League 2 · Round 8Sân vận động Đồng Nai

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Dong Nai53%

×Draw29%

Phú Thọ18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dong NaiExpected goals in this matchPhú Thọ

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.64

Dong Nai

1.30

Phú Thọ

0.64

Dong Nai creates 103% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 33 away

0.85

creates per match

0.73

0.55

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Dong Nai

0.85

Phú Thọ

0.73

allows per match

Dong Nai

0.55

Phú Thọ

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dong Nai+0.00on par

Phú Thọ+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dong Nai ↓

Phú Thọ →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Dong Nai or draw

82%

Dong Nai or Phú Thọ

71%

Draw or Phú Thọ

47%

Winning margin

Dong Nai wins by 2+

25%

Phú Thọ wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Dong Nai 1+ goals

73%

Dong Nai 2+ goals

37%

Dong Nai 3+ goals

14%

Phú Thọ 1+ goals

47%

Phú Thọ 2+ goals

14%

Phú Thọ 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Dong Nai (draw refunded)

74%

Phú Thọ (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dong Nai at home — creates 0.85, concedes 0.55 · 20 matches

Phú Thọ away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.76 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dong Nai attack 0.85 + Phú Thọ defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.30

Phú Thọ attack 0.73 + Dong Nai defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Dong Nai scores more

53%

level

29%

Phú Thọ scores more

18%

Dong Nai at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Dong Nai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff