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Phú Thọ vs Dak Lak — V.League 2 2020

Phú Thọ
Phú Thọ
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Dak Lak
Dak Lak
3/4/2022V.League 2V.League 2 · Round 1Sân vận động Việt Trì

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Phú Thọ31%
×Draw29%
Dak Lak40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Phú Thọ
1.00
Dak Lak
1.17

Dak Lak creates 17% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 21 away

creates per match

Phú Thọ
0.67
Dak Lak
0.95

allows per match

Phú Thọ
1.39
Dak Lak
1.33

finishing

Phú Thọ+0.00on par
Dak Lak+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Phú Thọ ↓

Dak Lak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Phú Thọ or draw
60%
Phú Thọ or Dak Lak
71%
Draw or Dak Lak
69%

Winning margin

Phú Thọ wins by 2+
12%
Dak Lak wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Phú Thọ 1+ goals
63%
Phú Thọ 2+ goals
26%
Phú Thọ 3+ goals
8%
Dak Lak 1+ goals
69%
Dak Lak 2+ goals
33%
Dak Lak 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Phú Thọ (draw refunded)
44%
Dak Lak (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Phú Thọ at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.39 · 33 matches

Dak Lak away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.33 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Phú Thọ attack 0.67 + Dak Lak defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.00

Dak Lak attack 0.95 + Phú Thọ defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Phú Thọ scores more
31%
level
29%
Dak Lak scores more
40%

Dak Lak at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dak Lak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Phú Thọ vs Dak Lak

Phú Thọ and Dak Lak drew 1-1 in V.League 2 on March 4, 2022.

The match was played at Sân vận động Việt Trì in Việt Trì.