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Dak Lak vs Phú Thọ — V.League 2 2020

Dak Lak
Dak Lak
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Phú Thọ
Phú Thọ
10/16/2022V.League 2V.League 2 · Round 20Sân vận động Buôn Mê Thuột

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Dak Lak44%
×Draw28%
Phú Thọ28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dak Lak
1.29
Phú Thọ
0.97

Dak Lak creates 33% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 33 away

creates per match

Dak Lak
0.83
Phú Thọ
0.73

allows per match

Dak Lak
1.22
Phú Thọ
1.76

finishing

Dak Lak+0.00on par
Phú Thọ+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dak Lak ↓

Phú Thọ →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Dak Lak or draw
72%
Dak Lak or Phú Thọ
72%
Draw or Phú Thọ
56%

Winning margin

Dak Lak wins by 2+
20%
Phú Thọ wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Dak Lak 1+ goals
72%
Dak Lak 2+ goals
37%
Dak Lak 3+ goals
14%
Phú Thọ 1+ goals
62%
Phú Thọ 2+ goals
25%
Phú Thọ 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Dak Lak (draw refunded)
61%
Phú Thọ (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dak Lak at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.22 · 23 matches

Phú Thọ away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.76 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dak Lak attack 0.83 + Phú Thọ defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.29

Phú Thọ attack 0.73 + Dak Lak defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Dak Lak scores more
44%
level
28%
Phú Thọ scores more
28%

Dak Lak at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Dak Lak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

V.League 2: Dak Lak 2–2 Phú Thọ

Dak Lak and Phú Thọ drew 2-2 in V.League 2 on October 16, 2022.

The match was played at Sân vận động Buôn Mê Thuột in Buôn Ma Thuột.