Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Phú Thọ vs Da Nang — V.League 2 2020

Phú Thọ
Phú Thọ
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Da Nang
Da Nang
12/3/2023V.League 2V.League 2 · Round 5Sân vận động Việt Trì

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Phú Thọ15%
×Draw24%
Da Nang60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Phú Thọ
0.69
Da Nang
1.65

Da Nang creates 139% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 10 away

creates per match

Phú Thọ
0.67
Da Nang
1.90

allows per match

Phú Thọ
1.39
Da Nang
0.70

finishing

Phú Thọ+0.00on par
Da Nang+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Phú Thọ ↓

Da Nang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–116%
0–213%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Phú Thọ or draw
40%
Phú Thọ or Da Nang
76%
Draw or Da Nang
85%

Winning margin

Phú Thọ wins by 2+
4%
Da Nang wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Phú Thọ 1+ goals
50%
Phú Thọ 2+ goals
15%
Phú Thọ 3+ goals
3%
Da Nang 1+ goals
81%
Da Nang 2+ goals
49%
Da Nang 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Phú Thọ (draw refunded)
20%
Da Nang (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Phú Thọ at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.39 · 33 matches

Da Nang away — creates 1.90, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Phú Thọ attack 0.67 + Da Nang defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.69

Da Nang attack 1.90 + Phú Thọ defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Phú Thọ scores more
15%
level
24%
Da Nang scores more
60%

Da Nang at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Da Nang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Phú Thọ vs Da Nang

Da Nang beat Phú Thọ 4-0 in V.League 2 on December 3, 2023.

The match was played at Sân vận động Việt Trì in Việt Trì.