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Da Nang vs Phú Thọ — V.League 2 2020

Da Nang
Da Nang
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Phú Thọ
Phú Thọ
5/18/2024V.League 2V.League 2 · Round 18Sân Vận Động Hòa Xuân

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Da Nang68%
×Draw22%
Phú Thọ10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Da Nang
1.78
Phú Thọ
0.52

Da Nang creates 242% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 33 away

creates per match

Da Nang
1.80
Phú Thọ
0.73

allows per match

Da Nang
0.30
Phú Thọ
1.76

finishing

Da Nang+0.00on par
Phú Thọ+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Da Nang ↓

Phú Thọ →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Da Nang or draw
90%
Da Nang or Phú Thọ
78%
Draw or Phú Thọ
32%

Winning margin

Da Nang wins by 2+
40%
Phú Thọ wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Da Nang 1+ goals
83%
Da Nang 2+ goals
53%
Da Nang 3+ goals
26%
Phú Thọ 1+ goals
41%
Phú Thọ 2+ goals
10%
Phú Thọ 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Da Nang (draw refunded)
87%
Phú Thọ (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Da Nang at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.30 · 10 matches

Phú Thọ away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.76 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Da Nang attack 1.80 + Phú Thọ defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.78

Phú Thọ attack 0.73 + Da Nang defence 0.30 → ÷2 → 0.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Da Nang scores more
68%
level
22%
Phú Thọ scores more
10%

Da Nang at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Da Nang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Da Nang 3 – 0 Phú Thọ

Da Nang beat Phú Thọ 3-0 in V.League 2 on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Sân Vận Động Hòa Xuân in Da Nang.