Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Phú Thọ vs Binh Thuan — V.League 2 2020

Phú Thọ
Phú Thọ
FT
1 – 1
Binh Thuan
Binh Thuan
4/8/2023V.League 2V.League 2 · Round 1Sân vận động Việt Trì

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Phú Thọ43%
×Draw25%
Binh Thuan32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Phú Thọ
1.55
Binh Thuan
1.30

Phú Thọ creates 19% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 9 away

creates per match

Phú Thọ
0.67
Binh Thuan
1.22

allows per match

Phú Thọ
1.39
Binh Thuan
2.44

finishing

Phú Thọ+0.00on par
Binh Thuan+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Phú Thọ ↓

Binh Thuan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Phú Thọ or draw
68%
Phú Thọ or Binh Thuan
75%
Draw or Binh Thuan
57%

Winning margin

Phú Thọ wins by 2+
22%
Binh Thuan wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Phú Thọ 1+ goals
79%
Phú Thọ 2+ goals
46%
Phú Thọ 3+ goals
20%
Binh Thuan 1+ goals
73%
Binh Thuan 2+ goals
37%
Binh Thuan 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Phú Thọ (draw refunded)
57%
Binh Thuan (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Phú Thọ at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.39 · 33 matches

Binh Thuan away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Phú Thọ attack 0.67 + Binh Thuan defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.55

Binh Thuan attack 1.22 + Phú Thọ defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Phú Thọ scores more
43%
level
25%
Binh Thuan scores more
32%

Phú Thọ at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Phú Thọ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

V.League 2: Phú Thọ 1–1 Binh Thuan

Phú Thọ and Binh Thuan drew 1-1 in V.League 2 on April 8, 2023.

The match was played at Sân vận động Việt Trì in Việt Trì.