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Binh Thuan vs Phú Thọ — V.League 2 2020

Binh Thuan
Binh Thuan
CANC
09:00
Phú Thọ
Phú Thọ
12/17/2023V.League 2V.League 2 · Round 7Sân vận động tỉnh Ninh Thuận

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Binh Thuan37%
×Draw24%
Phú Thọ39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Binh Thuan
1.54
Phú Thọ
1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 33 away

creates per match

Binh Thuan
1.33
Phú Thọ
0.73

allows per match

Binh Thuan
2.44
Phú Thọ
1.76

finishing

Binh Thuan+0.00on par
Phú Thọ+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Binh Thuan ↓

Phú Thọ →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Binh Thuan or draw
61%
Binh Thuan or Phú Thọ
76%
Draw or Phú Thọ
63%

Winning margin

Binh Thuan wins by 2+
18%
Phú Thọ wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Binh Thuan 1+ goals
79%
Binh Thuan 2+ goals
45%
Binh Thuan 3+ goals
20%
Phú Thọ 1+ goals
79%
Phú Thọ 2+ goals
47%
Phú Thọ 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Binh Thuan (draw refunded)
49%
Phú Thọ (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Binh Thuan at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.44 · 9 matches

Phú Thọ away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.76 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Binh Thuan attack 1.33 + Phú Thọ defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.54

Phú Thọ attack 0.73 + Binh Thuan defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Binh Thuan scores more
37%
level
24%
Phú Thọ scores more
39%

Phú Thọ at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Phú Thọ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Binh Thuan host Phú Thọ

December 17, 2023: Binh Thuan take on Phú Thọ in V.League 2. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Binh Thuan host Phú Thọ at Sân vận động tỉnh Ninh Thuận.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.