Phu Dong 1–2 Hòa Bình: Result & Stats | V.League 2

Phu Dong

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Hòa Bình

12/2/2023

V.League 2 · Round 5Sân vận động Ninh Bình

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Phu Dong44%

×Draw30%

Hòa Bình26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Phu DongExpected goals in this matchHòa Bình

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.83

Phu Dong

1.17

Hòa Bình

0.83

Phu Dong creates 41% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 29 away

1.21

creates per match

0.62

1.05

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Phu Dong

1.21

Hòa Bình

0.62

allows per match

Phu Dong

1.05

Hòa Bình

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Phu Dong+0.00on par

Hòa Bình+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Phu Dong ↓

Hòa Bình →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Phu Dong or draw

74%

Phu Dong or Hòa Bình

70%

Draw or Hòa Bình

56%

Winning margin

Phu Dong wins by 2+

19%

Hòa Bình wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Phu Dong 1+ goals

69%

Phu Dong 2+ goals

33%

Phu Dong 3+ goals

11%

Hòa Bình 1+ goals

56%

Hòa Bình 2+ goals

20%

Hòa Bình 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Phu Dong (draw refunded)

63%

Hòa Bình (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Phu Dong at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.05 · 43 matches

Hòa Bình away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.14 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Phu Dong attack 1.21 + Hòa Bình defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.17

Hòa Bình attack 0.62 + Phu Dong defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Phu Dong scores more

44%

level

30%

Hòa Bình scores more

26%

Phu Dong at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Phu Dong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff