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Hòa Bình vs Phu Dong — V.League 2 2020

Hòa Bình
Hòa Bình
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Phu Dong
Phu Dong
5/19/2024V.League 2V.League 2 · Round 18Sân Vận Động Hòa Bình

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Hòa Bình35%
×Draw32%
Phu Dong33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hòa Bình
0.94
Phu Dong
0.91

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 43 away

creates per match

Hòa Bình
0.86
Phu Dong
1.09

allows per match

Hòa Bình
0.72
Phu Dong
1.02

finishing

Hòa Bình+0.00on par
Phu Dong+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hòa Bình ↓

Phu Dong →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Hòa Bình or draw
67%
Hòa Bình or Phu Dong
68%
Draw or Phu Dong
65%

Winning margin

Hòa Bình wins by 2+
13%
Phu Dong wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Hòa Bình 1+ goals
61%
Hòa Bình 2+ goals
24%
Hòa Bình 3+ goals
7%
Phu Dong 1+ goals
60%
Phu Dong 2+ goals
23%
Phu Dong 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Hòa Bình (draw refunded)
51%
Phu Dong (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hòa Bình at home — creates 0.86, concedes 0.72 · 29 matches

Phu Dong away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.02 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hòa Bình attack 0.86 + Phu Dong defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.94

Phu Dong attack 1.09 + Hòa Bình defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Hòa Bình scores more
35%
level
32%
Phu Dong scores more
33%

Hòa Bình at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Hòa Bình will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

V.League 2: Hòa Bình 0–0 Phu Dong

Hòa Bình and Phu Dong drew 0-0 in V.League 2 on May 19, 2024.

The match was played at Sân Vận Động Hòa Bình in Hòa Bình.