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Phu Dong vs Dong Thap — V.League 2 2020

Phu Dong
Phu Dong
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Dong Thap
Dong Thap
5/15/2024V.League 2V.League 2 · Round 17Sân vận động Ninh Bình

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Phu Dong48%
×Draw29%
Dong Thap24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Phu Dong
1.29
Dong Thap
0.82

Phu Dong creates 57% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 40 away

creates per match

Phu Dong
1.21
Dong Thap
0.60

allows per match

Phu Dong
1.05
Dong Thap
1.38

finishing

Phu Dong+0.00on par
Dong Thap+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Phu Dong ↓

Dong Thap →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Phu Dong or draw
76%
Phu Dong or Dong Thap
71%
Draw or Dong Thap
52%

Winning margin

Phu Dong wins by 2+
22%
Dong Thap wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Phu Dong 1+ goals
72%
Phu Dong 2+ goals
37%
Phu Dong 3+ goals
14%
Dong Thap 1+ goals
56%
Dong Thap 2+ goals
20%
Dong Thap 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Phu Dong (draw refunded)
67%
Dong Thap (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Phu Dong at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.05 · 43 matches

Dong Thap away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.38 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Phu Dong attack 1.21 + Dong Thap defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.29

Dong Thap attack 0.60 + Phu Dong defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Phu Dong scores more
48%
level
29%
Dong Thap scores more
24%

Phu Dong at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Phu Dong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

V.League 2: Phu Dong 1–0 Dong Thap

Phu Dong beat Dong Thap 1-0 in V.League 2 on May 15, 2024.

The match was played at Sân vận động Ninh Bình in Ninh Bình.