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Dong Thap vs Phu Dong — V.League 2 2020

Dong Thap
Dong Thap
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Phu Dong
Phu Dong
12/9/2023V.League 2V.League 2 · Round 6Sân vận động Cao Lãnh

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Dong Thap37%
×Draw31%
Phu Dong32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dong Thap
1.04
Phu Dong
0.96

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 43 away

creates per match

Dong Thap
1.05
Phu Dong
1.09

allows per match

Dong Thap
0.82
Phu Dong
1.02

finishing

Dong Thap+0.00on par
Phu Dong+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dong Thap ↓

Phu Dong →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Dong Thap or draw
68%
Dong Thap or Phu Dong
69%
Draw or Phu Dong
63%

Winning margin

Dong Thap wins by 2+
14%
Phu Dong wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Dong Thap 1+ goals
65%
Dong Thap 2+ goals
28%
Dong Thap 3+ goals
9%
Phu Dong 1+ goals
62%
Phu Dong 2+ goals
25%
Phu Dong 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Dong Thap (draw refunded)
53%
Phu Dong (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dong Thap at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.82 · 38 matches

Phu Dong away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.02 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dong Thap attack 1.05 + Phu Dong defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.04

Phu Dong attack 1.09 + Dong Thap defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Dong Thap scores more
37%
level
31%
Phu Dong scores more
32%

Dong Thap at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Dong Thap will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dong Thap vs Phu Dong

Dong Thap and Phu Dong drew 0-0 in V.League 2 on December 9, 2023.

The match was played at Sân vận động Cao Lãnh in Cao Lanh.