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Phu Dong vs Can Tho — V.League 2 2020

Phu Dong
Phu Dong
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Can Tho
Can Tho
7/2/2022V.League 2V.League 2 · Round 5Sân vận động Thanh Trì

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Phu Dong49%
×Draw25%
Can Tho26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Phu Dong
1.58
Can Tho
1.09

Phu Dong creates 45% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 22 away

creates per match

Phu Dong
1.21
Can Tho
1.14

allows per match

Phu Dong
1.05
Can Tho
1.95

finishing

Phu Dong+0.00on par
Can Tho+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Phu Dong ↓

Can Tho →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Phu Dong or draw
74%
Phu Dong or Can Tho
75%
Draw or Can Tho
51%

Winning margin

Phu Dong wins by 2+
25%
Can Tho wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Phu Dong 1+ goals
79%
Phu Dong 2+ goals
47%
Phu Dong 3+ goals
21%
Can Tho 1+ goals
66%
Can Tho 2+ goals
30%
Can Tho 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Phu Dong (draw refunded)
65%
Can Tho (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Phu Dong at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.05 · 43 matches

Can Tho away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.95 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Phu Dong attack 1.21 + Can Tho defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.58

Can Tho attack 1.14 + Phu Dong defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Phu Dong scores more
49%
level
25%
Can Tho scores more
26%

Phu Dong at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Phu Dong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

V.League 2: Phu Dong 0–1 Can Tho

Can Tho beat Phu Dong 1-0 in V.League 2 on July 2, 2022.

The match was played at Sân vận động Thanh Trì in Hanoi.