Can Tho 1–0 Phu Dong: Result & Stats | V.League 2

Can Tho

FT

1 – 0

Phu Dong

5/5/2021

V.League 2 · Round 7Sân vận động Cần Thơ

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Can Tho32%

×Draw28%

Phu Dong40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Can ThoExpected goals in this matchPhu Dong

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.25

Can Tho

1.08

Phu Dong

1.25

Phu Dong creates 16% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 43 away

1.14

creates per match

1.09

1.41

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Can Tho

1.14

Phu Dong

1.09

allows per match

Can Tho

1.41

Phu Dong

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Can Tho+0.00on par

Phu Dong+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Can Tho ↓

Phu Dong →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Can Tho or draw

60%

Can Tho or Phu Dong

72%

Draw or Phu Dong

68%

Winning margin

Can Tho wins by 2+

12%

Phu Dong wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Can Tho 1+ goals

66%

Can Tho 2+ goals

29%

Can Tho 3+ goals

10%

Phu Dong 1+ goals

71%

Phu Dong 2+ goals

36%

Phu Dong 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Can Tho (draw refunded)

44%

Phu Dong (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Can Tho at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.41 · 22 matches

Phu Dong away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.02 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Can Tho attack 1.14 + Phu Dong defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.08

Phu Dong attack 1.09 + Can Tho defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Can Tho scores more

32%

level

28%

Phu Dong scores more

40%

Phu Dong at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Phu Dong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff